MSTR · Strategy Inc — 投资研究

营收趋势与盈利能力Income Trend & Profitability§ 01

5 年营收 CAGR5y revenue CAGR -1.7%

财年Fiscal Yeari	营业收入Revenue	同比YoYi	净利润Net income	毛利率Gross margini	营业利润率Op margini	净利率Net margini	摊薄 EPSEPS (diluted)
FY2021	$0.5B	—	$-0.5B	82.0%	-153.6%	-104.8%	$-5.34
FY2022	$0.5B	—	$-1.5B	79.4%	-255.5%	-294.4%	$-12.98
FY2023	$0.5B	—	$0.4B	77.8%	-23.2%	86.5%	$2.64
FY2024	$0.5B	—	$-1.2B	72.1%	-399.8%	-251.7%	$-6.06
FY2025	$0.5B	—	$-4.0B	68.7%	-1140.8%	-844.8%	$-15.23
LTM(过去 4 季度合计)LTM (last 4 quarters)i 2025-06 → 2026-03	$0.5B	+2.8% vs FY	$-12.4B	68.1%	94.2%	-2519.4%	$-35.65

季度趋势(最近 8 个季度)Quarterly Trend (last 8 quarters)§ 01b

最新一季:FY26 Q1 · 2026-03-31 · 下次财报通常在季度结束后 3-4 周Latest quarter: FY26 Q1 · 2026-03-31 · next report ~3-4 weeks after fiscal quarter end

季度Quarter	营业收入Revenue	环比QoQi	同比YoYi	净利润Net income	毛利率Gross margini	营业利润率Op margini	摊薄 EPSEPS (diluted)
FY24 Q2 2024-06-30	$0.11B	—	—	$-0.10B	72.2%	-179.7%	$-0.57
FY24 Q3 2024-09-30	$0.12B	+4.2%	—	$-0.34B	70.4%	-372.7%	$-1.72
FY24 Q4 2024-12-31	$0.12B	+4.0%	—	$-0.67B	71.7%	-842.1%	$-3.03
FY25 Q1 2025-03-31	$0.11B	-8.0%	—	$-4.22B	69.4%	-5331.4%	$-16.49
FY25 Q2 2025-06-30	$0.11B	+3.1%	+2.7%	$10.02B	68.8%	12256.3%	$32.60
FY25 Q3 2025-09-30	$0.13B	+12.4%	+10.9%	$2.79B	70.5%	3023.4%	$8.42
FY25 Q4 2025-12-31	$0.12B	-4.4%	+1.9%	$-12.62B	66.1%	-14184.8%	$-42.93
FY26 Q1 2026-03-31	$0.12B	+1.1%	+11.9%	$-12.54B	67.1%	-12.0%	$-38.25

资产负债表Balance Sheet§ 02 2025-12-31

现金及短投Cash & ST investments

$2.3B

总债务Total debt

$8.3B

净现金 / (净债务)Net cash / (debt)i
$-6.0B

股东权益合计Total equity

$51.0B

流动比率Current ratioi

5.62

负债权益比 (TTM)D/E (TTM)i

0.18×

现金流量表Cash Flow§ 03 FY2025

经营性现金流Operating cash flowi

$-0.1B

资本开支Capexi

$-0.0B

自由现金流Free cash flowi
$-0.1B

FCF 利润率FCF margini

-21.8%

资本开支 / 营收Capex / revenuei

7.8%

FCF / 净利润转化率FCF / NI conversioni

—

估值倍数 (TTM)Valuation Multiples (TTM)§ 04

市盈率 (TTM)P/E (TTM)i-4.3×

PEG (TTM)i-0.1×

市销率 (TTM)P/S (TTM)i96.8×

市净率P/Bi1.2×

EV/EBITDAi114.7×

EV/FCFi7.0×

EV/Salesi109.2×

FCF 收益率FCF yieldi16.02%

盈利收益率Earnings yieldi-23.14%

股息率Dividend yieldi0.00%

资本回报率 (TTM)Returns on Capital (TTM)§ 05

净资产收益率ROEi-24.1%

投入资本回报率ROICi0.7%

总资产回报率ROAi-22.8%

毛利率Gross margini68.1%

营业利润率Op margini94.2%

净利率Net margini-2519.4%

研发 / 营收R&D / revenuei19.2%

分析师前瞻预期Forward Analyst Estimates§ 06

财年截止FY ending	营收均值预期Revenue avg	EPS 均值预期EPS avg	分析师数# analysts
2025-12-31	$0.5B	$16.51	6
2026-12-31	$0.5B	$36.63	8
2027-12-31	$0.5B	$21.78	5
2028-12-31	$0.5B	$58.67	5
2029-12-31	$0.5B	$391.60	2

DCF 估值DCF Valuation§ 07

主估值锚Primary anchor: 前瞻 DCF — FCF 调整(分析师 EPS × FCF 转化率)Forward DCF — FCF-adjusted (analyst EPS path × FCF conversion)

⚠ 检测到周期股特征Cyclical detected — 5 年内有 4 年净利润为负、0 次大幅同比波动。历史 FCF DCF 对周期股估值有系统性偏差,因为最近一年很少能代表中周期。本报告主锚改用「分析师前瞻 EPS × FCF 转化率」。4 year(s) of negative income, 0 large YoY swing(s) in 5y history. Historical-FCF DCFs systematically misprice cyclicals because the latest year is rarely representative. Primary anchor uses forward analyst EPS path × FCF conversion factor instead.

方法Method	情景Scenario	公允价Fair value	vs 现价vs current
前瞻 DCF — FCF 调整Forward DCF — FCF-adjusted	悲观Bear	$767	+379.7%
前瞻 DCF — FCF 调整Forward DCF — FCF-adjusted	基准Base	$1,496	+835.8%
前瞻 DCF — FCF 调整Forward DCF — FCF-adjusted	乐观Bull	$2,245	+1303.8%
前瞻 DCF — 纯 EPSForward DCF — Pure EPS	悲观Bear	$1,534	+859.4%
前瞻 DCF — 纯 EPSForward DCF — Pure EPS	基准Base	$2,302	+1339.7%
前瞻 DCF — 纯 EPSForward DCF — Pure EPS	乐观Bull	$2,993	+1771.7%
FMP 内置 DCFFMP built-in DCF	—	$-31	-119.3%

同业对比Peer Set§ 08

ADSK

Autodesk, Inc.

$240.99

$50.9B

CDNS

Cadence Design Systems, Inc.

$373.59

$103.0B

DDOG

Datadog, Inc.

$222.32

$79.1B

FTNT

Fortinet, Inc.

$133.93

$98.1B

GLW

Corning Incorporated

$194.05

$167.0B

INFY

Infosys Limited

$12.67

$51.4B

技术面快照Technical Snapshot§ 09

最新收盘Last close$159.89

20 日均线20-day SMAi$175.26

50 日均线50-day SMAi$154.84

200 日均线200-day SMAi$212.53

现价 / 200 日均线Price / 200d MAi0.75×

1 月涨幅1m return-6.5%

3 月涨幅3m return+28.3%

年初至今YTD return+1.7%

1 年涨幅1y return-60.0%

年化波动率Annualized voli79.6%

20 日均成交量20d avg volume14,880,053

52 周区间52-wk range$104.17 – $457.22

评级细节Verdict Detail§ 10

支持因素Supporting factors

Base DCF implies +836% upside

警示 / 周期风险Warnings / cycle risks

P/S 96.8× — high for cyclical
4 year(s) of negative net income in 5y history — cycle risk

投资逻辑(自动生成)Investment Thesis (auto-derived)§ 11

数据自动生成的概要。PM 级别 memo 请替换为公司专属叙事。Data-driven summary. Replace with company-specific narrative for a full PM-level memo.

多头论点Bull case

周期杠杆 — 若分析师准确,FY+1 营收同比 +-1%Cycle leverage — analyst FY+1 revenue growth of -1% if estimates correct
FCF 收益率 16.0% — 当前价位现金回报合理FCF yield 16.0% — reasonable cash return at current price

空头论点Bear case

P/S 96.8× 内嵌高增长预期 — 倍数压缩风险P/S of 96.8× embeds high growth expectations — multiple compression risk
5 年内有 4 年净利润为负 — 周期可能快速反转Memory of 4 negative-income year(s) in 5y history — cycle can turn fast
净债务 $6.0B — 增长不及预期时缓冲薄Net debt position $6.0B — less cushion if growth disappoints

术语解释Glossary§ 12

本报告中所有指标的定义说明。Definitions for every metric used in this report.

估值倍数Valuation

P/E (TTM)

市盈率。股价 ÷ 过去 12 个月每股盈利。衡量投资者为每元利润付多少。Price-to-Earnings ratio. Current share price ÷ trailing 12-month EPS. Measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings.

PEG (TTM)

市盈率 ÷ 盈利增长率。PEG < 1 表示增长未被市场充分定价。P/E ratio divided by earnings growth rate. PEG < 1 suggests growth not fully priced in.

P/S (TTM)

市销率。市值 ÷ 过去 12 个月营收。对未盈利或周期股有用。Price-to-Sales ratio. Market cap ÷ TTM revenue. Useful for unprofitable or cyclical companies.

P/B

市净率。市值 ÷ 股东权益。高 P/B 意味市场预期未来 ROE > 资本成本。Price-to-Book ratio. Market cap ÷ shareholders' equity. High P/B = market expects future ROE > cost of equity.

EV/EBITDA

企业价值 ÷ 息税折旧摊销前利润。中性于资本结构。越低越便宜,8-12 倍为中周期常态。Enterprise Value ÷ EBITDA. Capital-structure-neutral. Lower = cheaper. 8-12× = typical mid-cycle.

EV/FCF

企业价值 ÷ 自由现金流。对资本密集行业比 EV/EBITDA 更准确。Enterprise Value ÷ Free Cash Flow. Better than EV/EBITDA for capex-heavy industries.

EV/Sales

企业价值 ÷ 营收。当盈利/FCF 不稳时使用。Enterprise Value ÷ Revenue. Used when earnings/FCF are noisy.

FCF Yield

每股自由现金流 ÷ 股价。市值的现金回报率。>5% 有吸引力,<2% 偏贵。Free Cash Flow per share ÷ price. Cash return on market cap. >5% = attractive, <2% = expensive.

Earnings Yield

EPS ÷ 股价。市盈率倒数。可与债券收益率比较看相对吸引力。EPS ÷ price. Reciprocal of P/E. Compare to bond yields to see relative value.

Dividend Yield

年股息 ÷ 股价。持有股票获得的现金收入率。Annual dividend per share ÷ price. Cash income from holding the stock.

盈利能力Profitability

Gross Margin

毛利润 ÷ 营收。反映定价权与单位经济性。>50% 软件级,<30% 商品化。Gross profit ÷ revenue. Pricing power and unit economics. >50% = software-like; <30% = commodity.

Op Margin

营业利润 ÷ 营收。扣除研发/销售管理后、利息税前的利润率。Operating income ÷ revenue. Profit after R&D/SG&A but before interest and tax.

Net Margin

净利润 ÷ 营收。扣除全部成本后的盈利率。Net income ÷ revenue. Bottom-line profitability after all costs.

R&D / Revenue

研发支出占营收比。高 = 创新驱动;长期低可能预示停滞。R&D spend as % of sales. High = innovation-driven; sustained low can signal stagnation.

资本回报Returns on Capital

ROE

净资产收益率 = 净利润 ÷ 股东权益。>20% 强劲,>40% 顶级。Return on Equity = Net income ÷ shareholders' equity. >20% = strong franchise; >40% = elite.

ROIC

投入资本回报率 = 税后营业利润 ÷ (债务 + 权益)。单一最佳盈利指标,>15% 跑赢资本成本。Return on Invested Capital = NOPAT ÷ (debt + equity). Best single profitability metric. >15% beats cost of capital.

ROA

总资产回报率 = 净利润 ÷ 总资产。从资产效率角度看盈利能力。Return on Assets = Net income ÷ total assets. Asset-efficiency view of profitability.

现金流Cash Flow

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)

核心业务运营产生的现金,扣除资本开支和融资活动前。Cash generated from core business operations, before capex/financing.

Capex

资本开支。用于长期资产(工厂、设备、产能)的现金支出。Capital expenditure. Cash spent on long-term assets (factories, equipment, capacity).

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

经营性现金流 − 资本开支。再投资后真正可分配给股东/债权人的现金。OCF − Capex. Cash actually available to shareholders/debt-holders after reinvestment.

FCF Margin

FCF ÷ 营收。>15% 现金充裕,<5% 资本密集或承压。FCF ÷ revenue. >15% = cash-rich; <5% = capital-intensive or stressed.

Capex / Revenue

资本开支强度。>20% 重资产(如晶圆厂),<5% 轻资产模式。Capex intensity. >20% = heavy fab/factory investment; <5% = asset-light.

FCF / NI Conversion

FCF ÷ 净利润。反映多少账面利润转化为真实现金。<50% 意味 capex 吞噬利润。FCF ÷ Net Income. Shows how much earnings becomes real cash. <50% = capex eats earnings.

资产负债Balance Sheet

Net Cash / (Debt)

现金及短投 − 总债务。正值 = 净现金堡垒,负值 = 净债务(财务杠杆)。Cash & ST investments − Total debt. Positive = net cash (fortress); negative = net debt (financial leverage).

Current Ratio

流动资产 ÷ 流动负债。>1.5 表示短期流动性宽松。Current assets ÷ current liabilities. >1.5 = comfortable short-term liquidity.

D/E (TTM)

总债务 ÷ 股东权益。资本结构杠杆,<0.5 保守,>1.5 激进。Debt ÷ Equity. Capital structure leverage. <0.5 = conservative; >1.5 = aggressive.

技术面Technical

SMA20 / SMA50 / SMA200

过去 N 个交易日收盘价的简单移动平均。价格在均线上方 = 上升趋势,下方 = 下降趋势。Simple Moving Average of closing prices over N trading days. Above = uptrend, below = downtrend.

Price / 200d MA

当前价 ÷ 200 日均线。>1.5× 已延伸,>2× 抛物线 / 晚周期风险。Current price ÷ 200-day SMA. >1.5× = extended; >2× = parabolic / late-cycle risk.

Annualized Volatility

日对数收益率标准差 × √252。值越大波动越剧烈。存储 ≈ 50-70%,科技巨头 ≈ 25-35%。Std dev of daily log returns × √252. Higher = wider price swings. Memory ≈ 50-70%, mega-cap tech ≈ 25-35%.

Beta

对 S&P 500 的敏感度。β > 1 比大盘波动更剧烈,β < 1 更平稳。Sensitivity to S&P 500 moves. β > 1 = more volatile than market; β < 1 = less.

时间窗口Time Windows

TTM

过去 12 个月。最近一年已报告的财务数据。Trailing Twelve Months. Most recent 12 months of reported financial data.

LTM

过去 12 个月,等同于 TTM。最近 4 个季度数据合计。Last Twelve Months. Same as TTM. Sum of latest 4 quarters.

CAGR

复合年增长率。N 年间两个端点的年化增长率。Compound Annual Growth Rate. Annualized growth between two endpoints over N years.

QoQ

环比。相对上一季度的变化,反映短期动能。Quarter-over-Quarter. Change vs the previous quarter. Shows short-term momentum.

YoY

同比。相对去年同期的变化,剥离季节性影响。Year-over-Year. Change vs the same quarter last year. Removes seasonality.

FY / Q1-Q4

财年及其 4 个季度。可能不与日历年对齐(如 MU 财年 8 月结束,NVDA 1 月结束)。Fiscal Year and its 4 quarters. May not align with calendar year (e.g. MU FY ends August, NVDA ends January).

估值方法Valuation Methods

DCF

现金流折现。将预测的未来现金流折算到今天的价值,得到内在价值。Discounted Cash Flow. Estimate intrinsic value by discounting projected future cash flows to today.

Historical FCF DCF

从最近年报 FCF 按历史增速外推。适用稳定增长股,对周期股估值有偏差。Projects forward from latest annual FCF using historical growth. Works for stable seculars; misprices cyclicals.

Forward DCF — FCF-adjusted

用分析师 EPS 预期 × FCF 转化率。对周期股更准,因为纳入了周期复苏路径。Uses analyst EPS estimates × FCF conversion factor. Better for cyclicals since it incorporates cycle recovery.

Forward DCF — Pure EPS

在预测期内按折现率加总分析师 EPS。对资本密集业务高估。Sums analyst EPS through forecast horizon at a discount rate. Overstates for capex-heavy businesses.

Q-annualized

最新季度 EPS × 4 × 目标 P/E 倍数。最新的 run-rate,本报告主估值锚。Latest quarterly EPS × 4 × target P/E multiple. Most current run-rate; primary anchor in this report.

Terminal Multiple

预测期末用于估算永续价值的 P/E 或 EV/EBITDA。反映中周期预期。P/E or EV/EBITDA applied at end of forecast period to value perpetuity. Reflects mid-cycle expectations.

Discount Rate / WACC

用于将未来现金流折算到今天的年化利率。越高风险越大,常见区间 8-12%。Annual rate used to convert future cash flows to today's value. Higher = riskier. Typical: 8-12%.

评级与评分Verdict & Scoring

Composite Score

质量、增长、估值、动能、资产负债等信号的总分。范围 −10 到 +12。Sum of points from quality, growth, valuation, momentum, and balance sheet signals. Range −10 to +12.

Fundamental Score

未应用情绪缓冲的基本面综合分。纯数据驱动信号。Composite score before sentiment buffer. Pure data-driven signal.

Sentiment Score (0-100)

由 1 年涨幅、价 / 200 日 MA、1 月动能、均线对齐合成的动能代理。80+ 抛物线,<20 恐慌出清。Momentum proxy from 1Y return, price/200d MA, 1M momentum, SMA alignment. 80+ = parabolic; <20 = capitulation.

Sentiment Buffer

情绪与基本面强烈背离时对基本面分的调整。极端动能 vs 看空基本面时最多 +2。Adjustment to fundamental score when sentiment and fundamentals diverge sharply. +2 max for extreme momentum vs bearish fundamentals.

Cyclical vs Secular

周期股:峰值利润年不是最近 OR 5 年内有负利润年。增长股:单调增长。Cyclical: peak income year is not recent OR has negative-income years. Secular: monotonic growth.

STRONG BUY / BUY / HOLD / REDUCE / SELL

基于最终评分的等级(≥7 / ≥4 / ≥1 / ≥−2 / 其他)。不是价格目标,而是相对吸引力信号。Rating buckets based on final score (≥7 / ≥4 / ≥1 / ≥−2 / else). Not a price target — a relative attractiveness signal.